I underestimated ... (from The Great Depression)
I made a serious mistake to underestimate
The Bubble Master , the Lord of the bubble. Indeed
Greenspan, former chairman of the Fed, a few months ago said:
"I must go up the bags and many problems will be solved" ...
I did not think very appropriate Alan was now in disgrace, accused by all as the initiator of the bubble that had led to the current Great Depression.
There was still a different atmosphere, of renewal, of catharsis, purification mostly induced by fear that the toy was broken for good. The Greenspan
sorties were then seen evil and thus bubble knew something that had led to the crisis.
But the grand old man was right, and have recently stressed in an interview
Bloomberg :
"if the stocks and stock go up is creating a cushion that allows you to better attuttire their debt, increase their market power, it is not worth the paper they are real money ...." and if he tells him ...
and guidance of the Master was put into practice: the stock markets are rising indefinitely, without any adjustment in the largest increase (of note) that the stock market human history has ever seen. This epochal rise
you are dragging it all behind: the restoration-
confidence in entities that do not deserve it at all,
cancellation of any dissenting voice,
banks back in full form (apparently) that make super-profits from trading as if they were speculative hedge funds, Hedge Blamed
also have begun to do in the face of the crusade nutshell put up against them, hidden and forgotten
toxic assets under the law in the folds of the budget,
macro ignore bad news or interpreted in a positive way,
people back to shopping, thinking, "everything is solved now, doubt and fragility
considered the preserve of the few original pessimistic
unemployment only a slight side effect,
multinationals who return to do useful and seems to pale they're making record profits, confidence in the future
pumped down to the maximum
etc etc I will not deny the evidence: There have been considerable improvements in the macro-economic indicators , the so-called "stabilization" ... But this formidable
unconventional weapon of mass psychology which is the upside of the stock infinity becoming a weak recovery in the collective imagination in a powerful and strong recovery , a small shrub in a mighty oak. .. So
orgy bullish optimism and drag, which is annihilating all dissent, doubt, and that is covering with a little 'every crack of mortar structure.
How to sketch out some critical fact, some doubt in the face of bags that all the days of the barrel rises to +1% +1.5% +2% ... Every single day?
How can one talk of a recovery induced by heavy Keynesian policies full of heavy side effects and the process of re-stocking (
drivers one-off)? This recovery will be able to walk with his legs?
How do you talk about monetary easing desperate? Rates to zero, printing of currency, purchase government bonds etc etc. We saw what happened the last time Greenspan has lowered rates substantially ....
How do you talk about the downside of that is the explosion of public debt we carry as an albatross for who knows how?
How do you talk about the dust under the carpet or of toxic assets, the alarming and ongoing fragility of the banking and financial system and leverage still at their
crazy?
How do you talk about all this when the bags every day, every day, every day climb.
I understand how he must have heard Roubini from 2006 to 2008, when for two years was the Cassandra and all took him for mad ...
We are witnessing the most rapid and radical change of sentiment capovigimento in human history: the collapse of the system in resolving the crisis and the resumption of the toughest century ... all in just 7 months ... Either we are taking the piss now ... or they took the piss first ... or there is also magic in the economy as well as in fantasy books. I'm seriously considering to change the name of my blog from The Great Crisis
to
Big Bluff with valence double deliberately and indiscriminately.
Also because I had chosen a name that inevitably had a deadline ...
Ah yes ...
the Bubble Master was right by financial and stock market you are clearing the Great Depression triggered by financial and stock market.
To exit the explosion of a bubble, it swells and dangerous yet another bigger, which also involves the public debts of the states.
seems crazy but it is absolutely logical and not had to be.
Is there anyone who still wants to hear news like these?
are news now appear to be from Mars, while on earth was only the stock markets always go up and that they point to a bright future ...
NEWS FROM MARS - Yesterday crunch first thirty years in the auction of U.S. T-bond: the claim was weak and had to get the interest paid. In particular, requests from other central banks were weak. And God forbid that the dollar continues to weaken ...
The message was immediately understood by Bernanke
which has been re-announced that the U.S. will raise rates as soon as possible ... and The dollar has now recovered. As long as everyone buys U.S. debt
strappandoselo hand even if it offers returns from hunger, the trick can work.
$ 12 Billion Auction Closes At 30 Year 4009% High Yield, 2:37 Bid To Cover - Yields 4,009% vs. Exp 3994%
- Bid To Cover vs 2:37. Avg 2:59 (Prev 2.92)
- Indirects 34.5% vs. Avg 48.03% (46.7% Prev)
- Indirect Bid To Cover: 1.51
- allotted at high
- 27.53% to 8.5% of Directs accepted
- Electricity consumption falling sharply in Italy
Electricity: sharp drop in demand in September Decrease 6.9% the volume of electricity demand in Italy in September, amounting to 26.9 billion kilowatt-hours , the volumes consumed in the same month last year. The drop in demand is still more 'relevant if one takes into account the average monthly temperature, being more than two degrees above past year: in this case the change is equal to -8.4%. - The ineffable Draghi said
... the governor of the Bank of Italy Mario Draghi said that "the recovery after the crisis promises to be slow and fragile."
And so it is all the more necessary, "the reconstruction of the Financial. Reconstruction of the financial system?? But not everything was resolved?? Even the "reconstruction"??
- ECB and BoE to leave everything unchanged: to its lowest rate ever, and quantitative easing in full pumping ... the face of powerful shooting "V" that are showing the stock ...
The ECB leaves rates unchanged at 1% or lows.
... The Bank of England has left rates unchanged, also at their historic low (0.50%), and confirmed the plan for the purchase of government bonds to 175 billion pounds.
Trichet: "We need stronger banks." "The Banks must take other measures to strengthen the capital and provide loans to businesses and individuals, " - ABI big shot on the Italian banking suffering:
president of ABI, Corrado Faissola : " Italian banks have reached a level of suffering at the limit of bearable. "
the hearing on the budget, Faissola said that 'in August 2009, gross NPLs totaled 51.8 billion euro, 1.2 in more' than July 2009 and 8.6 billion more 'than in August 2008.
and growth of the suffering they must be associated with an increase of losses: 8.5 billion in the first half of 2009'. Nobel laureate per l'economia Paul Krugman afferma in merito al commercio internazionale:
Paul Krugman: In Trade, ‘It’s Not the Great Depression — It’s Worse’ .....“When it comes to international trade, actually it’s not the Great Depression, it’s worse,” he said, presenting charts showing the decline in global trade activity falling much more steeply in the current downturn than during the Depression. “The scale of the collapse of world trade has been so large that it has produced a degree of international linkage that surpasses what even the pessimists imagined,” he said. “World trade acted as a transmission mechanism, "Economic distress spreading" even to Those Countries That Had Relatively healthy financial systems, "such as Germany. " We really are one world economy in a Way That has never before Been True," He Said .... Alcoa, the aluminum giant United States has opened the waltz of the quarterly USA.
He beat quarterly expectations by presenting a small profit instead of loss and triggered a further acceleration in the stock market rally.
Pity that the turnover is at -33% and -70% in both quarterly profit compared with 2008.
shame that a return to the monstrous gains is due to cuts in costs, such as the dismissal of 19 thousand employees and the closure of some plants' everywhere.
marigini shame that have been pumped from the speculative rise in aluminum prices (+24%).
shame to admit that the same as their business has been driven by huge incentive plans for worldwide automotive industry and the process (one time) re-stocking of the stores empty as ever.
But you look at the future and provides the global demand for aluminum Alcoa to +11% in the second half of 2009 ...
At this point, the Dow Jones can go quietly into the 12 thousand points before it can draw any corrections, and the great recovery fueled by speculative bubbles and public debt can take all of the stellar Ribalta.
Who wants to mirror it to the big approffiti: We are one of the most spectacular carnival in decades.
